A Look at the Election State by State by State
From here on in, it will be important to keep track of the Presidential race state by state and watch the Electoral College total. Right now, there is a big discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College total. Taking a look at the Electoral College vote, based on how the polls are going, Obama has a huge, though not unsurmountable lead. In the popular vote, it is neck to neck. These figures are very conservative and some of the states will switch to a different column very soon.
Right now, I give John McCain an almost sure 61 Electoral College Votes and Barack Obama 89. When you add on the states that are very likely to join them soon, McCain has 95 and Obama has 169. The states that are leaning one way or the other are just barely out of being considered swing states and could still go either way. When these are added in, McCain gets 157 and Obama gets 221. If all things remain the same, McCain needs another 113 and Obama another 49.
Why the big difference between the popular votes and the Electoral College. It depends on how many votes a candidate wins each state by. If he wins a state with a large Electoral College vote by a slim margin and the opponent wins a state with a small Electoral College vote with a very large margin, the one candidate may get more Electoral College votes while his opponent gets more popular vote, especially if the states are not that far apart. This will become more evident as the election gets ever closer. Also, third party and independent candidates make a difference in the popular vote, but not in the Electoral College vote. Keep watching Interesting things are about to happen.
Strong for McCain
Alabama 9 votes.
Idaho 4 votes
Kentucky 8 votes
Louisiana 9 votes
Nebraska 5 votes
Oklahoma 7 votes
Tennessee 11 votes
Utah 5 votes
Wyoming 3
Total of 9 states with 61 votes
likely McCain
Texas 34 votes
One state with 34 votes
Leaning McCain
Alaska 3 votes
Arizona 10 votes
Arkansas 6 votes
Georgia 15 votes
Kansas 6 votes
Mississippi 6 votes
South Carolina 8 votes.
South Dakota 3 votes
West Virginia 5 votes
nine states with 62 votes
Total for McCain 19 states with 157 votes
Strong for Obama
Connecticut 7 votes
District of Columbia 3
Hawaii 4 votes
Illinois 21 votes
Maine 4 votes
Vermont 3 votes
Massachusetts 12 votes
New York 31 votes
Rhode Island 4 votes
nine states with 89 votes
Likely Obama
California 55 votes
Maryland 10 votes
New Jersey 15 votes
three states with 80 votes
Leaning Obama
Delaware 3
Minnesota 10 votes
Oregon 7 votes
Pennsylvania 21 votes
Washington 11 votes
five states with 56 votes
total for Obama 23 states with 236 votes
Swing States
Colorado 9 votes
Florida 27 votes
Indiana 11 votes
Iowa 7 votes
Michigan 17 votes
Missouri 11 votes
Montana 3 votes
Nevada 5 votes
New Hampshire 4 votes
New Mexico 5 votes
North Carolina 15 votes
North Dakota 3 votes
Ohio 20 votes
Virginia 13 votes
Wisconsin 10
fifteen states with 160 votes.
Comment by susan on 11 August 2008:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com