With all the attention the Presidential race is getting, we seem to have forgotten that the entire House of Representatives as well as one third of the Senate are also up for re election. And as far as the Senate goes, the latest polls show that the Democrats will have a larger majority in the next session than they did in this one.

Currently there are 49 Democrats, 2 Independents and 49 Republicans. Sounds even except for the fact that the independents tend to voter Democratic. If what the latest Zogby poll says comes to pass, the Democrats could end up with a net gain of 2 or 3 seats and that will make a big difference, no matter who the next President is.

The poll focused on New Mexico, Virginia Oregon Louisiana and Colorado.

The situation in New Mexico is a bit different as there is on incumbent running. Long time Republican Senator Pete Domenici is retiring. The Republican running for his seat is Steve Pearce, who is currently the Congressman from the 2nd district. The Democrat running for Domenici’s seat is Tom Udall another Congressman. The way the race breaks down is this. Udall leads with moderates, independents and Hispanic voters. Pearce with the more conservation Republican fractions. Udall leads Pearce by a margin of 49 to 41%. That is plus one for the Democrats

In Virginia, it is a race between former Governors. Republican Jim Gilmore and Democrat Mark Warner. Again, there is no incumbent as they are running to replace long time Senator Jack ( no relation) Warner. The fact that Warner gets support from all the voters is reflected in the fact that he is leading Gilmore by a margin of 51 to 36%. This would be another gain for the Democrats, giving them a net gain of two.

In Oregon, the incumbent Republican, Gordon Smith is trailing the Democrat Jeff Merkley by a margin of 38%-29%. Where are the rest? This is what makes the situation in Oregon different. Independent candidate John Frohnmayer is getting 8% and the Constitution Party’s Dave Brownlow 5%. Then there is a whopping 20% who are still undecided. Oregon will have to be watched very closely, but for now it gives the Democrats another gain, making the total a gain of three.

There is no surprise in Louisiana, where Democratic incumbent, Mary Landrieu, is losing to Republican John Kennedy by a margin of 47 to 41%. She would need to get good support from Barack Obama to pull this one out. The reason. In Louisiana, right now, there is a majority of Conservatives and Kennedy is a strict Conservative. So for now this one goes to the Republicans, giving them a gain of one and cutting the Democratic gains back to two.

In Colorado, it is still a horse race, virtually neck in neck. The incumbent, Democrat Wayne Allard Udall. And the challenger, Republican Bob Schaffer are tied at 40%. There is a whopping undecided percentage here also. So the way it stands right now, the Democrats would gain two seats.

In this past session, the Republicans have been very successful in blocking bills by using cloture and filibuster. The more seats the loose, the less likely it will be that they can repeat in the next session. These states will be watched very carefully, for they could determine the balance of power.
c5b53a7