How “That One” Did It
I was looking forward to following the election across the country last night, but things moved so fast, there were still states in the Eastern Time Zone that had not been decided yet. As a matter of fact, the morning after there are still a couple of states that are so even no one has called them yet. So lets see how our predictions went and where McCain lost it.
In the east we predicted
Obama’s States
New Hampshire 4, Pennsylvania 21, New York 31, New Jersey 15, Massachusetts 12, Maine 4, Rhode Island 4, District of Columbia 3, Virginia 13, North Carolina 15, Florida 27, Ohio 20, Delaware 3, Connecticut 7, Maryland 10, Vermont 3 Total 192
McCain’s States
Georgia 15, West Virginia 5, South Carolina 8, Total 28
This is exactly what happened, with two exceptions. Sort of. Maine is one of the two states where electors can be split. Obama got 3, McCain 1 And North Carolina, one of the swing states, is still up in the air. The last figures show each candidate has about 50% of the vote. But the popular vote shows Barack Obama 2,101,986, John McCain 2,089,826, so we will keep this in Obama’s column. Therefore, we got all the states right, but lets give McCain the one from Maine which gives Obama 191 and McCain 29.
The election was all but lost at this point. McCain needed to take at least one of the states away from Obama and he failed to do so. He campaigned very heavily, right up to the end, in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio and they all went to Obama.
The Central Time Zone went the way we said it would, with one very notable exception. And it was not a good exception for McCain. We predicted
Obama’s States
Minnesota 10,Wisconsin 10, Illinois 21, Iowa 7, Michigan 17. Total 65 electoral votes + 192 = 257
McCain’s States
Missouri 11, Arkansas 6 , South Dakota 3, Kentucky 8, Tennessee 11 , Indiana 11, Louisiana 9, Kansas 6, Alabama 9, Mississippi 6, Oklahoma 7, Nebraska 5, North Dakota 3,
Texas 34 total 129 electoral college votes + 28 = 157
Obama won all that were predicted for him. And took Indiana away from McCain. And that was not decided until this morning. Obama won 50 to49% with a popular vote of 1,352,356 to 1,329,379. So coming out of the mid west, it was Obama 268, McCain 146.
In the Mountain Time Zone, we predicted.
Obama’s States
Colorado 9, New Mexico 5 Total 14 electoral college votes +
McCain’s States
Wyoming 3, Montana 3, Arizona 10, Utah 5, Idaho 4, Total 25 electoral college votes
And this is exactly what happened. So coming out of the Mountain States the count was Obama 282, McCain 171.
In the Pacific Time Zone, we predicted
Obama’s States
California 55, Nevada 5, Oregon7, Washington 11. Total 78 electoral college votes
McCain’s States None
And again we hit it right on the nose. As a matter of fact it was Washington that put Obama over the top because their results were in before some of the mid west states. Obama got Hawaii with 4 and McCain got Alaska with 3 just as we expected which brings the grand total to Obama 364, McCain 174. We had predicted it would be Obama 353, McCain 185. As far as ther popular votes goes it ended up Obama 52% 62,450,83, McCain 46% 55,393,194, Barr (I) 0% 480,246 and Nader (I) 1% 641,160. A 6% win. This is one time there will not be a controversy over popular vote verses Electoral College.
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