Iowa Predictions
The day of the Iowa Caucus is less than 24 hours away. The Iowa Caucus is more tricky to predict than the NH primary. In some polls of likely caucus goers Mitt Romney has had almost a 10% lead over Mike Huckabee. Yet, some polls released the same day show Mike Huckabee with almost a 10% lead over Mitt Romney.
The polls I have looked at show that voters are more moved by Mitt Romney’s message and are more likely to go out and vote. Low voter turnout would make Romney a sure winner. Mitt’s only problem is people either seem to love him, or hate him. Meaning, he could miss out on those important “second” choice votes.
John McCain is polling roughly at 12%, but his supporters do not seem moved by him at all, and are unlikely to turn out at the polls.
Fred Thompson is polling 8-9%, but his supporters are probably as motivated as Fred himself to go out and vote.
Ron Paul supporters seem to be different… and they will turn out, in droves to vote for him. Ron Paul is only polling 7-9% in these polls, but remember this is among “likely republican caucus goers”. Theses polls neglect to show first time voters, voters who constantly switch parties, and voters in any other party that may be switching over to vote for Ron Paul. This ultimately doubles Ron Paul voter turnout.
Predictions:
Mitt Romney- 25%
Mike Huckabee- 23%
Ron Paul- 18%
John McCain-13%
Fred Thompson – 8%
Rudy Giuliani – 6%
Ducan Hunter – 3%
Alan Keyes – 2%
Obviously the results hinder on voter turnout. The more people who turn out the better Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney will do. These candidates have flooded the state with ads recently.
Your Thoughts?
Popularity: 2% [?]
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Comment by KO on 2 January 2008:
The only way Ron Paul won’t win the WHOLE THING is if our electoral process has been hijacked. As in, it all hinges on who is counting the votes, doesn’t it? If they count the votes at all, Dr. Paul wins this thing, easy. The rest of these clowns are pretenders.
Comment by Ron Paul For President on 2 January 2008:
I think an 18% 3rd place finish for Paul would be incredible as far as being a “moral victory” and making the media pay attention to him and take him seriously and also as far as getting people in future primaries to consider him as having a real possibility of winning.
All that being said, I hope he more than doubles his support in the polls, I’m hoping for a TRIPLE!
I certainly hope I am not disappointed on the 3rd. Like the above commenter mentioned, I’m concerned about who is COUNTING the votes.
Comment by M C on 2 January 2008:
A source I have from within the campaign (in Iowa) has told me that the latest internal poll shows Paul in second place with 18%. I dont know what everyone else is at in this poll or who is in first (nor by how much) but that is all I have heard.
Comment by Pavel on 2 January 2008:
I would have to say that if Ron Paul doesn’t take this election by storm, it will be a sad truth that people are not doing their homework on their candidates and scrutinizing them based on what issues they address, how, and the reasoning behind them. I also strongly urge people to ignore FOX, since they present a very biased opinion, down to the fact that they have excluded Dr. Paul from some private televised debates coming up on Jan. 6th. If that’s not biased opinion then you tell me what is. Not to mention they always ridicule the man based on what he believes in. That’s unprofessional and creates a false bad representation of a man that actually has the best ideas in the whole election.
Comment by Kol on 2 January 2008:
Ok, so who is counting the votes and what is the process!
any info Anyone!
I mean are they hand counted or machine or what?!
Comment by Morty McNutt on 2 January 2008:
Don’t get me wrong, I love Ron Paul. I remember back in 1988, I was in middle school and heard him on an AM talk radio show out of Atlanta (Mike Malloy if you really want to know). He sounded incredible! I was like, “how can this dude not be president?”. Of course that was a naive kid talking back then.
His appearance on Meet The Press was less than stelar. However, Tim Russert beats everyone up, so I don’t hold it against him.
I would love for Ron Paul to get the GOP nomination. However, he will be a footnote at best when it is all said and done.
You have just read my opion. My name is Morty McNutt.
Comment by Dave on 2 January 2008:
The last update I got on the NCEL lawsuit, was that the motion to require hand ballots in Iowa was denied. There is no reason the Iowan party officials cannot use the machines again.
Google “We the people foundation” for more information:
http://www.wethepeoplefoundation.org/PROJECTS/NCEL/NCEL.htm
Comment by JeffnDallas on 2 January 2008:
I think the key point this reporter hit upon was “turnout.” Several Iowa reporters remarked several weeks ago that “should weather/road conditions be challenging” this could be a shoe-in for Ron Paul given the fact his supporters will suffer whatever conditions to show up and have their vote counted. Sorry Iowa, but Texas is praying for BAD WEATHER if this is the case…LOL!
Comment by E. Schulz on 2 January 2008:
Ron Paul will come in 2nd. If your numbers are correct I believe Paul will outbeat Huck’s numbers for this reason…many evangelicals & homeschoolers are voting for Paul and not Huckabee. Combine the youth vote and the new voter turnout (those switching parties, indies, and disenfranchised voters) Paul’s actual numbers will be in the low to mid twenties.
I also believe that Paul will place 1st in New Hampshire.
This is going to be HISTORICAL.
Comment by Texan4RP on 2 January 2008:
I see a media that is just flat out trying to hide the fact that Ron Paul is going to do very well. IMO even the RP supporters will be surprised.
Comment by Diogoenes Sinope on 2 January 2008:
Coffee Bean Poll
Today CNN had 3 Democrats talking about the coffee been poll which has been accurate in the past. Barrack Obama was beating Hillary. Ron Paul had 2x the amount of beans than the nearest candidate. The CNN anchor was shocked and immediately put the topic back to the Democrats!
Go Ron Paul! A man of real virtue who will never sell out to the highest bidder (unlike all the rest of the field!)
Diogenes of Sinope
Comment by patrick wilber on 2 January 2008:
your top three percentages are probably close. but, i think the order will be hucky, paul, and rombot.
Comment by Pavel on 2 January 2008:
http://boycott4freedom08.com/
Comment by Clayton Stamper on 3 January 2008:
i’ve been hoping and hoping that ron paul would be heard by the nation. with those huge couple days of fundraising, he’s been able to blast iowans with his message via phone and tv. i saw one guy comment on youtube “i’m sick of being called by ron paul 3-4 times a day!!” it made me excited!
thanks everyone for soothing my worries! RON PAUL 4L!
Comment by Ron Paul For President on 3 January 2008:
RE: Coffee Bean Poll. Part of me think that Ron Paul might win like 50% of the vote in Iowa. When you take into consideration all of the other factors. Voter turnout so on and so forth… I Mean I’ve read that Iowa only has a 3% turnout for the Republican caucus! Think about that. It makes it much easier to sway with a dedicated group. The other Republican candidates are so extremely weak, I have a hard time imagining anyone being excited about them and actually going out to vote for them. Hopefully Huckabee/Romney people are made complacent by the polls that show them on top.