Is The Tide Turning in Hillary Clinton’s Favor?
In what is turning out to be one of the most contentious Presidential campaigns in recent history, voters are looking at the states with the late primaries to be the decision makers. Although the polls this campaign have had their glaring errors, for the most part they have been pretty much on the money. If they are to be believed, then the advantage seems to be shifting back in Hillary Clinton’s favor.
Take Pennsylvania, for instance. Back in February, both Rasmussen Associated and Quinnipiac University had Clinton leading by almost the same margin, 46% to 42% at Rasmussen and 49% to 43% at Quinnipiac. Rasmussen has taken a more recent poll on March 5 that shows Clinton leading by a margin of 52% to 37%. In the first poll 12% were unsure and in the newest one it is 11%. This shows voters changing their minds from Obama to Clinton.
There are two more primaries on May 5th In Indiana, there are no polls since the beginning of February and at that time Obama led by a margin of 40% to 25% with 35% unsure. In North Carolina, however, the polls show Clinton narrowing the gap. Back in February, Obama was leading by as much as 50% to 40% with just 4% unsure. In the latest poll, taken March 3, it is Obama 47%, Clinton 43% with 10% unsure.
In West Virginia, Clinton has always been in the lead. The latest poll here was taken on Feb20th and showed Clinton 43%, Obama 22% with 35% unsure. The rest of the states- Nebraska, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota do not have any recent polls to report on, but knowing the pollsters, they will be available soon.
The Pennsylvania results will be vital. They can tip the flow of public opinion one way or the other and have a profound impact on the ones to follow. If Clinton wins by a decided margin, more than what the polls show now, it will give her campaign a good head of steam. If Obama keeps it close, or even wins, her campaign will be in big trouble.
What is your opinion on the Clinton/Obama battle? Take a minute to vote in the poll and give your opinion, By the end of April, we will know the way things are headed and if you hit ht nail on the head.
Comment by gilesjp on 24 March 2008:
No Hillary got a short term bounce from the constant mudslinging and the rev. Wright debacle, but there is no substance and any objective person has to be turned off by her behavior. She is unelectable and has made Obama unelectable as well she is only running to cause damage to the democratic pary. Her motto is “give me the nomination even though I can’t win or I will destroy the party”. This campaign when it is all over has ruined both candidates careers for good.
Comment by weighing_in on 24 March 2008:
Obama cannot win PA, OH, or FL against McCain in a general primary – Hillary is by FAR more equipped to take the Dems all the way – I can’t wait to see Obama get smoked in the PA primary. It will be a joke if they let him into the general election, seriously. How can you put someone who has not won a single large “blue” state primary into the race. Obama’s numbers are coming from red state victories – doesn’t anyone see this!!??!! – for crying out loud!
Comment by gary on 24 March 2008:
Could Hillary Clinton be at home this weekend thinking about her chances, hearing from “party elders” and worrying about her image and future standing in the party? As entitled as she feels, as unwilling as she is to ever stop fighting, she is not stupid. It’s hard to imagine her ever seeing a path to a nomination that would be anything beyond an awfully phyrric (spelling?) victory. Imagine her standing with the party, the electorate and the press if she were to step out for her party and “the country’s sake” to do her all to get a Democrat in the White House. Imagine the unity she could engender with a positive, supportive and rousing speech (with Obama at her side?). This would be the time for such an action… before PA. If she wins PA in a big way Obama supporters will claim backlash from Rev. Wright & that this could last thru No. Carolina & Indiana, but that he’ll have plenty of time to recover before November. She cannot pass him in delegate count, and I bet she’s exhausted. A move like this would cement her leadership role in the party, at the convention and in the Democratic controlled Senate. Also, if Obama should lose she will be the #1 Dem going forward for four years. Musings from a political junkie…feel free to post on politico.com as your own.
Comment by ShirleyD on 24 March 2008:
If Obama gets this nomination from the Democrats, it will be a BIG joke. He has won all these States where Republicans will easily carry in the General Election. This man does not have the experience this country needs after Bush. I hate to say it, but I will be casting my vote for John McCain if Obama is our nominee.
Shirley, MI
Comment by Shaun Pickford on 24 March 2008:
Things are finally swinging the way they should be, in Hillary’s favor, because the truth about Obama is coming out. He has always had an air about him that he is the perfect candidate that the Dems have been waiting for forever, and he brings “hope and change” to the world and is great orator and is akin to JFK or FDR as a great Democratic leader. Finally, the truth has come out. Finally he has had to take a stand on an issue instead of smiling and speaking his way around everything. The truth of his past and his personal beliefs are coming out, and as we get closer down to the wire, he is being forced to give answers (finally) on how he will fix things, and he is clueless. As I said, he is “completely missing the ball”, and when the public finally gets a chance to see what he is all about (or what he doesnt know) and they dont necessarily feel the same way about him that they thought. That is why Hillary is gaining ground, people realize, although they may disagree with her, that she has actual substance to her, not just a good public persona.
Comment by Tony on 24 March 2008:
As a detached independent who has oscillated back and forth with my choice, I can only look at this Democratic contest with dismay. Hillary CANNOT win unless she poaches superdelegates, and I don’t think Obama’s core constituents will be ready to support Hillary if it looks like the campaign was “stolen” from Obama.
On the other hand, ironic that back in 2000, Hillary was proclaiming that it’s the popular vote that should matter when Bush won, now it’s all about electoral votes. What a joke. As far as the argument that Obama hasn’t won any big states, that’s a bit spurious. Does anyone REALLY think that states like California and New York will not go Democratic?
McCain isn’t exactly the beacon of conservatism that will have Southern state conservatives falling over themselves to vote for him.
Ultimately, it looks like the dems are going to stab themselves in the face to get the nomination. The only beneficiary of that is John McCain.
Comment by Peter on 24 March 2008:
The cat is out of the bag, and we are now seeing the real soul of Obama being revealed by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright who, by the way, would have likely ended up in the Obama cabinet at the White House were Obama to be elected.
Comment by nisha, on 24 March 2008:
BO will lose to the Republicans. He associated himself with a ranting racist for the better part of 20 years, even claiming Wright to be his mentor and inspiration. Given that BO has on one hand refused to distance himself from the man, and call all ‘typical white folks’ racists in the same speech, I do believe this calls his authenticity and judgment into question. Given that his speech and follow up interviews did not respond to the central issue is sufficient to keep this alive. Had this been a white candidate attending a bunch of “white power” messages over a 20 year period, said person would now be a pariah in polite society. So why should BO expect different treatment? Or is anyone claiming we should treat blacks different than whites?
Comment by nisha, on 24 March 2008:
So you all Obama supporters approve of your candidate who has been attending a church for last 20 years with his family where lesson of hate thy neighbor instead of love thy neighbor is given. That really speaks of your values. Is this what you want your children to learn?
Comment by Michael on 24 March 2008:
…as the country soon becomes aware of the hypocracy of Mr. Obama, Mrs. Clinton will be the beneficiary. All americans should be held to the same standard, no matter the color of our skin, or how much money we have in the bank. You cannot speak out against racial issues and then turn around and refer to your grandmother as a “typical white person”. What is a typical white person Obama? You insult us with you Ivy League talk. Course, thats all it is.. TALK. You Mr Obama, are a hpyocrit. You do not fool me.
Hillary 2008!
Comment by Diana Rabenold on 24 March 2008:
In spite of ALL the media–right and left–trashing Hillary Clinton EVERY SINGLE MINUTE of this entire campaign, she is the real deal–the one who really means what she says and has the heart and smarts and toughness to work on behalf of ordinary Americans, WHICH IS ALL SHE HAS EVER TRIED TO DO! Obama is the smoke and mirrors guy–now people are seeing that he is a blank slate, on which a lot of people have projected all their own wishes…but there is no-one there!
Comment by Sal on 25 March 2008:
Ex-Hillary Democrats for John McCain. If Obama and his cohorts want to deceive people that much for the Democratic nomination, they can have it. I am a lifelong Democrat ready to vote for McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic candidate. Unqualified, inexperience, hyprocrite — liar! Obama will lead the Democrats to certain defeat in November.
Comment by Candice on 25 March 2008:
The Hillary campaign must be low on funds, they obviously have all their surrogates posting online here.
Clinton is the “real deal”? LOL, just like when she was ducking bullets in Bosnia. What a pathetic, lying wench.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BfNqhV5hg4
Comment by goldenstate on 25 March 2008:
Rev. Wright has already destroyed Obama’s chances of becoming President.
Comment by Erik on 25 March 2008:
Hillary is trying everything she can including trying to steal delegates from Obama. While the Reverend has hurt Obama, he immediately addressed and denounced Wright’s statements. Barack directly addressed the issue of racism which I thought was very effective. On the republican side you have McCain and his “100 year war”, which is exactly what Bush, Cheney, and Halliburton desired when they got us into this mess.
Comment by Tim on 25 March 2008:
I’m just wondering how Hillary plans to take on restructuring the health care system while taking payouts from the health care companies who like the system the way it is, but are probably seeking to further their pockets through endorsing Clinton.
How can any American even think about voting for McCain? He is already dedicated to wasting even more of our money on this unjust war. Why not at least invest in our own country especially when we are in recession. Guess that’s what happens when you get locked in a cage and poked with sticks.
There are too many bloggers on the Hillary payroll. It’s prevalent on every political site. Coming from the PR realm I know how to spot ‘em. This method is about as undemocratic as Cheney’s response “So” when asked how he felt about the fact that over 2/3 of the American population do not believe the war in Iraq is worth fighting.
Comment by Vote Hillary on 25 March 2008:
Anyone that’s even thinking about voting for the prejudice, deceitful, lying and transparent BO is nuts…
Comment by kas on 25 March 2008:
No, absolutely not – Hillary Clinton lies too much, she is greedy. There is no way she can win this nomination.
Comment by Mike Sculpture on 26 March 2008:
Would all of the Obama supporters, please stop bashing Hillary with your negative comments.
Let the people vote, count all of the votes and let the results fall where they will.
Comment by Jim on 1 April 2008:
Read these comments on Obama’s cousins website. his blogs interesting they should mention if Obama doesn’t get the election there will be burning in the us. Obama campaigned for him in Kenya, they lost.
they rioted, killing people with machete’s , burning the church with women and children inside. Nice Family.
http://raila2007.wordpress.com/2008/03/15/obama-and-the-future-kenyan-politics/#comment-7906
and here:
read comments # 14,15,16
http://iperceive.net/obama-odinga-the-kenyan-jihad/
do your own search, use obama and his cousin’s name together, and you will be suprised on what the world knows.