New Hampshire Republican Primary Predictions
The New Hampshire primary is what shapes elections. Rudy Giuliani must just be seeming to realize this and just started to campaign frantically. John McCain has come out from no where, but can his war mongering mentality actually get votes? I cannot see someone who predicts that we might be in Iraq for 100+ years, and that would have gone into Iraq even if the country thought that there were no WMDs. The question is whether or not he can attract the independent vote again, If they know this, I do not see they could.
Mitt Romney has some every conservative talk show host on his side in the New Hampshire Area… Mitt Romney’s prediction is very hard to judge because he lost so much momentum at the Iowa Caucus, but gained a little back in Wyoming.
Predicting Ron Paul’s showing is nearly impossible, he could poll as high as 25% if everything happened as planned. Ron Paul is only receiving 8-11% of Republican supporters. It all rides on whether or not he can convince people who have never voted and people who crossed over to vote for him. I have received myself, four calls from the Ron Paul campaign urging me to vote, reminding me to vote, and urging me to bring friends.
Primary Predictions Republicans:
Mitt Romney-25%
John McCain-23%
Ron Paul-19%
Rudy Giuliani-10%
Mike Huckabee-9%
Fred Thompson-7%
Duncan Hunter-2%
Other- 5%
Comment by BrentA on 7 January 2008:
I think what you have posted, in regards to Ron Paul, is wishful thinking. Still, if it panned out it would be fantastic!
Comment by MB on 7 January 2008:
Why is Ron Paul so low?
Comment by NCMarc on 7 January 2008:
I think Ron won’t get that high. War McCain is stealing the independant votes and with all the closed doors counting that goes on, Ron will likely get 12-15% of the vote. I don’t believe McCain’s high 30’s numbers. There’s just too many players in this election still.
I think Thompson will beat Rudy though.
Comment by Ron Holland on 7 January 2008:
Here are my predictions including NH, Mich and SC
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Comment by Devon on 7 January 2008:
My thoughts were almost the same.. tho I had Huckabee over Giuliani by the same numbers…. also, I’m unsure of the 2nd/3rd placings. Ron has been hitting McCain’s ~100 years~ blunder pretty hard all day, from the CNN interview to that live talkshow in Florida a little earlier. Also, I’m unsure of the fallout from the silly Romney book that came out today.. I don’t think it will hurt him long term, but may cause a bit of a dip for him while the info is still fresh. Anyways, would love a 2nd place finish… but 3rd is all that’s needed to really shake a lot of people awake..
Comment by Mike on 7 January 2008:
No way in hell Hunter gets 2%
Comment by S.T. on 7 January 2008:
19% for Ron Paul? If this is a comedy site you should probably mention it somewhere.
Comment by Matthew on 8 January 2008:
I live in new hampshire. And you all are thinking way to small. I’m thinking 33% Paul in first. And that is my most conservative educated guess. Reason being, I live in NH and I have been seeing and hearing about ron paul for a long time. We talk about him without media coverage. The rich turds around us laugh, but everyone i know who is working way to hard and making far to little hears ron paul Loud and clear. Just watch…..
Comment by Billy on 8 January 2008:
I think you have low balled Ron Paul here in NH everybody I know is voting for him.
Comment by Alexander Nobles on 8 January 2008:
I also live in NH; I am encouraged everyday by the amount of signs/waivers. I hope I am wrong and he does much better.