Ron Paul garnered 29% of the independent vote in Iowa. Iowa does not have strong percentage of their population registered Independent, New Hampshire Does. Ron Paul would have placed at least a strong third in Iowa if there were as many Independents in Iowa as there are in New Hampshire.

Independent voters amount to 44% of the voting population in New Hampshire. So if Ron Paul can attract the Independents, which anyone can assume he will, he will start with 13% of the vote. 30% of the Independents, plus word of mouth from them, will lead to at least 15% of the total vote. Add a few lifelong Republicans, or Democrats switching parties, you may just have something Dr. Ron Paul.

The New Hampshire primaries have historically shaped elections. If Ron Paul can garner 30% of the independents, like Iowa, and first time voters actually turn out to the polls Ron Paul will walk away with at least second in the New Hampshire primaries.

Many Ron Paul fans have been disappointed by the 5th place finish in Iowa. If first time voters in New Hampshire actually turn out to the polls in New Hampshire Ron Paul actually has a shot at finishing first. A conservative estimate would show that Ron Paul will take 20% in New Hampshire. This could be enough to win, because the competition is just so tough in the Granite State. Now that Romney has a little less power, McCain should have even a stronger showing than current polls predict. Whether or not Ron Paul can jump in and steal the victory really has only to do with voter turnout. How about getting buses to colleges and picking up students… they do not even have to be buses full with just Ron Paul supporters. College kids will either vote Democrat, or they will vote Ron Paul.

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