Todays Polls: Maybe Good News for McCain
There is mixed news for both candidates in the Presidential polls from August 7th. There is some good news for McCain in the fact that one of the states that is almost in the Obama column may be sliding back a bit to becoming a swing state. Obama has gained ground in another one of the swing states and has held his ground in two states that have been solidly behind him from day one.
This election is going to be won state by state, district by district. There is not much change expected until the vice presidential nominees have been made, but in the crazy world of politics anything can happen in a moments notice, so the states will be watched very closely. And that way, if there is a major change, we will be able to pinpoint where it came from and why.
The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports on Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44. Wisconsin , with its 10 Electoral College Votes is still considered a swing state, very close to being listed as leaning towards Obama. Last month, it was Obama 50 McCain 39, which shows that some of the undecided moved to the Obama side of the ledger. This one stays a swing state, until the next poll, at least.
Oregon is considered leaning towards Obama. In a poll from Survery USA, he is leading McCain by a margin of 48 to 45%. If Obama does not improve the percentages, this one could move to being a swing state, which would be good news for McCain.
New Jersey is considered to be leaning towards Obama and in the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports Obama has a 10 point lead, 52 to 42 %. This one is about ready to move to the likely to go for Obama column. Obama held on to strong leads in states that are considered solidly in his column, Massachusetts and New York.
The current count for both candidates right now is Obama 221. McCain 157. That is counting the states strongly behind them, likely to become strongly behind them and those leaning towards them. There are still 160 electoral votes up for grabs in the swing states. With 270 needed to win, McCain would have to get 113. Tomorrow we will look at Michigan, Alabama, Washington and Missouri and other others that may come along and see if one of them changes that balance of power one way or the other.
Popularity: 26% [?]
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Comment by jimbo on 10 August 2008:
Who is Rasmussen anyways ? What type of people does he speak to ? I do not believe his polling for one minute!!!!
ALWAYS HAS oBAMA AHEAD BY LIKE 10 POINTS WHEREAS NO OTHER POLL SHOWS THAT !!!!
Comment by oops on 10 August 2008:
“The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports on Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 44 . . . Last month, it was Obama 50 McCain 39, which shows that some of the undecided moved to the Obama side of the ledger.”
Looks like you’ve got a typo there. Obama going from 50 to 51 (+1) and McCain going from 39 to 44 (+5) shows that McCain is picking up undecided voters, not Obama.
Comment by susan on 11 August 2008:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Comment by Tom on 11 August 2008:
Susan is wrong, the Electoral College is in place to keep the most populated states from deciding the election. Different parts of the country have different concerns and those things need to be taken into consideration. That’s why the electoral college was formed. To change things would put less populated states at a disadvantage and liberal big cities like Chicago and New York, whose citizens have different needs and concerns would always decide the winner. The system works just fine and balances things out so let’s not mess with it.