Two More States go to Obama
The last time we took a look at how the Electoral College vote was going, Barack Obama had a total of 23 states with a total of 236 Electoral College votes and John McCain had a total of 19 states with a total of 157 Electoral College votes. These were based on the latest state by state polls. It is now a month later and there have been some changes made.
Back then, there was a total of 15 swing states with 160 Electoral College votes up for grabs. Those states were Colorado 9 votes, Florida 27 votes, Indiana 11 votes, Iowa 7 votes, Michigan 17 votes, Missouri 11 votes, Montana 3 votes, Nevada 5 votes, New Hampshire 4 votes, New Mexico 5 votes, North Carolina 15 votes, North Dakota 3 votes, Ohio 20 votes, Virginia 13 votes and Wisconsin 10.
The way it stands now, based on the polls out this week,
John McCain is leading in Indiana, but just by 2 points, so Indiana remains up for grabs. Back then, Alaska was considered to be leaning towards McCain. Alaska is now solidly in his column with the latest poll showing him leading 54 to 35%. McCain also leads in Colorado by 1%. Colorado still remains a swing state. Idaho is still very firmly in McCain’s column by a margin of 62 to 29%.
Obama is leading in Ohio, but just by 2%, so that one also is still up for grabs. Minnesota is solidly in Obama’s column by a margin of 53 to 41%. Iowa with its 7 Electoral College votes is no longer a swing state. It now belongs to Obama by a margin of 55 to 40%. Obama also leads in North Dakota by a margin of 3%, so North Dakota is still up for grabs. Obama also leads in Florida by 1% and in Pennsylvania by 5% both still too close to call. New Mexico is now in Obama’s column with its 5 Electoral College votes by a margin of 63 to 40%. Nevada with is 5 Electoral College votes is slightly leaning towards Obama by a margin of 49 to 44%.
John McCain did not pick up any more states, but if his lead expands in Indiana, he would pick up 11 more Electoral College votes which would bring him up to 168.
Obama did much better. He picked up Iowa with 7 and New Mexico with 5, giving him a total of 248 Electoral College votes. He also has a good chance to pick up Nevada with its 5 which would bring his total to 253.
The swing states as of right now are Colorado 9 votes, Florida 27 votes, Indiana 11 votes, Michigan 17 votes, Missouri 11 votes, Montana 3 votes, Nevada 5 votes, New Hampshire 4 votes, North Carolina 15 votes, North Dakota 3 votes, Ohio 20 votes, Virginia 13 votes and Wisconsin 10 – 13 States with a total of 148 votes up for grabs.
Of course, this is only the way it is today In the less than two months before election day anything can and probably will happen. Right now Obama looks like he is cleaning up this race, if he can keep the momentum going out of the debates, he may just be all set.
Comment by LaRae on 7 September 2008:
Wonderful, there is still PLENTY of hope!
Here is a very interesting read that I found from an unusually surprising religious perspective. I highly recommend checking it out:
http://www.newsflavor.com/Opinions/McCain-Hijacks-Christianity-Via-Palin.240929
Comment by Mark O on 7 September 2008:
So, does this include the latest national polls that show McCain in the lead? If so wouldn’t it be a delicious irony if Obama wins the Electoral College and ends up losing the popular vote!
Comment by Alexander Nobles on 8 September 2008:
Mark O,
I hope you would agree that, that would be horrible… and unfair… Just like you did before…
Fair is fair, and the EC vote is not fair…
Comment by susan on 8 September 2008:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
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