Why Hillary Clinton Should not Quit
When you take a look at the recent polls in the Democratic presidential race, you see why Hillary Clinton is staying in. The margin between the two candidates now is 140 delegates and there is a good chance that the unseated delegates from Florida and Michigan will actually be seated. They need an agreement from the two candidates as to how to do it.
The next state up for grabs is Pennsylvania and it is the one with the largest delegate count. The latest poll from American Research Group taken on 3/27 shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 51 to 39% with 8% unsure. On 3/24, Rasmussen Reports had Hillary Clinton leading by 49 to 39% with 12% unsure. All of the polls in March have about the same results.
On May 6 there are two primaries- North Carolina and Indiana, both of which are expected to go to Barack Obama. There has only been one poll taken, so far in Indiana and that was by the Howey Gauge Poll on Feb 17th. That one showed Barack Obama leading by 40 to 25% with a whopping 35% unsure. Barack Obama has consistently been in the lead in North Carolina. The latest American Research Group taken on March 30 shows him leading by 51 to 38% with 7% unsure.
May 13 is the date for the next two primaries and it swings back to Hillary Clinton again. One state, Nebraska, does not have any polls yet, but West Virginia does and the latest poll taken by Rasmussen Reports on March 13 shows Hillary Clinton leading by 55 to 27% with 18% unsure. While she has consistently led in West Virginia this is her largest lead yet.
On May 20th we move to Kentucky and Oregon and once again it is Clinton country, but more so in Kentucky than in Oregon. Hillary Clinton has consistently led in Oregon, but the last poll taken was by Riley Research Associates back on January 25 when other candidates were still in the race. It showed her leading Barack Obama 36 to 28% with Edwards getting 14%. Kucinich getting 4% and 16% unsure. In Kentucky however, the situation is very different. There has only been one poll taken but it was taken on March 29 and it shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 58 to 29% with 4% undecided.
Montana and South Dakota come up on June 3, but as of yet there are no polls for either state.
So, things are still very much up in the air. And being politics things can change in a split second, depending on who say what when and what dirty secret which candidate turns up on the other. And you thought Super Tuesday was going to be the end of it.
Popularity: 12% [?]
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Comment by marty on 2 April 2008:
ive been saying this forever. Hillary SHOULD NOT quit the race, there is still a lot of fighting left to be done. If I had to bet money in fact, I would still bet Hillary and make a huge win on betfair.
http://www.taylorblogs.com
Comment by Tyler on 2 April 2008:
Um, Oregon is NOT Clinton country Obama is leading in every poll. Clinton is dead in the water and cannot win in pledged delegates, Obama is the Democratic Nominee as well as the 44th President.
Comment by Burns on 2 April 2008:
I like how you make the argument “Hillary should stay in the race because the next states, by percentage of old polls taken months ago, are most likely going to go to Clinton.”
In reality, you disregard the fact that, by delegate math alone, it is impossible for her to win. Also, Oregon is Obama country all the way. Landslide for him there. This article is riddling with false logic. At least most Clinton supporters realize she’s going to have to rip the nomination from the people’s hands at the convention.
W
Comment by Michael on 2 April 2008:
Burns, get your head out of Obama’s butt and wake up. Neither Hillary or Obama can win this nomination with pleged delegates alone, there’s a long time until the convention and a lot can change in the next few weeks,WHEN hillary wins PA the race will be even closer and if Dean comes to the little senses he has and seats the delegates from MI and FL, Obama will be sunk. If Democrats want to take back the White House, Hillary is the only logical nominee cause McCain’ll beat Obama to a pulp in November.
Comment by Al Green on 2 April 2008:
Thankyou Michael for pointing out the obvious fact that Obama supporters and media pundits seem to miss. He cannot win either without the superdelegates. Taken into account that over 400000 (over 60% - according to real clear politics) of his popular vote lead comes from Crook County, it appears that he doesnt have the overwhelming support across the lines that we are led to believe by the press.
Im looking forward to the upcoming races, no matter what the polls say today. Obama heads, I doubt your next president will be associated with any anti-american racially divisive rhetoric. However, Im think Dems will insist Hill take Obama as her VP (notice how she smartly positioned herself early on this) because that will ensure an unbeatable ticket.
Comment by Donna on 2 April 2008:
Go Hillary! This is when we will see how strong she is and her supporters must all continue to be strong and outspoken as well. She has the experience, the most progressive policies and the true ability to bring people together. Take a look at all the legislation she has introduced and passed by working with members of both parties. Obama will operate much like Bush has needed to operate–lots of advisors telling him what to do–Given all the critical issues we face it is not the time for a rookie to try running the country!
Comment by mark pickford on 2 April 2008:
What does it matter a republican will win if he picks the right running mate!
Comment by Dave on 3 April 2008:
Even if Clinton wins 67% of the vote in the remaining primaries, she’ll still be behind in pledged delegates.
However, polls show Obama up in North Carolina, Indiana, and Oregon. It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion.
Comment by Dave on 3 April 2008:
Oh, and about the whole ‘neither can win without superdelegates’ spiel.. Clinton can’t win without the superdelegates overturning the pledged delegates, thus making the entire primary pointless.
Nancy Pelosi has warned the superdelegates not to do so.
Comment by Michael on 3 April 2008:
Oh, if Queen Nancy says not to do it then we might as well give up now. Grow up, Dave, and get it through your head that not every superdelegate is going to bend to the will of Pelosi and Dean, for all you or anyone knows, Hillary may take the lead in the national polls. With the primaries spread out over so many months, the people who voted in the early primaries may change their minds and decide, in hindsight, that they want Hillary to win, so overturning the pleged delegates may not be overturning the will of the party at the convention. Wake up and stop stealing rhetoric from Chris Dodd.
Comment by Jim on 7 April 2008:
Totally ludicrous. Apparently Clinton supporters STILL can’t do basic math. Clinton’s largest win (in terms of delegates) was in California, where she cleared 52 delegates more than Obama. In order for her to MATCH Obama in delegates, she needs nearly THREE more Californias. Those do not exist. Period.
She also has no money to keep running a campaign with. Try this math:
CNN quotes Obama at 1629, Clinton at 1486. There are just over 4k delegates total. that means that out of the remaining thousand or so delegates, she needs to win 140 more than Obama to break even - 57% of them. If she fails to win 57-43 in PA she will have LOST ground. No poll shows her doing that well.
Try and look at it logically from the standpoint of Democratic strategists, too. If they change the rules at this point to hand Clinton a win, they risk alienate blacks and college students for a generation, dooming the party for a good 20 years. Even if Obama is going to lose the election (which I doubt), they’re better off choosing him than skunking the process, or even giving the *hint* of impropriety. It’s not as if they have any reasonable guarantee Clinton would win, either, as most polls show Obama doing better against McCain than she does.
Not to mention, if the media hates Hillary Clinton and loves Barack Obama, why would we want the candidate the media hates? Aren’t they going to be the same people reporting on the general election?
Comment by Damian Stone on 9 April 2008:
The author is indeed a talented and eloquent writer, and I agree with the editorial perspectives! Damian.
http://groups.myspace.com/HillaryRodhamClintonForPresident