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It is no secret that the midterm elections will be favorable for the Republicans. The midterm election for a first-term president almost always goes towards the other party. But this year will be a particularly big swing, after two elections of big Democratic gains.
It is also no secret why the Republicans will win: the economy stinks. Not only is unemployment at 9.6% (and would be over 10% if you factor in the amount of people who have simply given up on work), more Americans are starting to wake up to the fact that Obama’s big government, tax-and-spend policy is a disaster.
Right now, intrade.com, which allows people to make bets on elections and other current events, have the Republicans at about a 66-70% chance of winning the House. They also have the Republicans at about a 27-30% chance to win the Senate.
Historically, it is easier for a party to take control of the Senate before taking control of the House. This is because Congressmen enjoy gerrymandering and huge incumbency advantages, whereas Senate races are more national in scope. The reason it is different this year is because of basic math. Democrats didn’t win many Senate seats until 2006, so most of the Senate seats up for grabs are still Republican seats. In the 2012/2014 elections, the Democrats will become extremely vulnerable to losing many Senate seats.
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