Clinton Picks up in Two States, Stays Steady in a Third
Momentum. Just how much momentum has Hillary Clinton received from her win last week in Pennsylvania? Three new polls – North Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana just out from Survey USA tell the story.
First, Indiana, a state where Clinton has been in the lead in most polls. The latest one from Survey USA- April 26th shows her leading 52 to 43%, a 9% advantage. A poll taken by American Research group immediately after the Pennsylvania primary showed her leading by 5%. There is a poll out taken by Research 2000 at the same time that showed Obama in the lead by 1%. The 9% lead she has in the latest poll matches her lead earlier in the year. Momentum going to Clinton- yes.
North Carolina. This one is the biggest surprise of all. And the poll was taken before Clinton got the endorsement of North Carolina’s Governor, Mike Easley. Just how much impact his endorsement will have will be evident in the next few polls, but the latest one from Survey USA- April 29th shows Obama in the lead by just 5%. This is the smallest lead he has had in any of the North Carolina polls. In a poll taken by Survey USA just before the Pennsylvania primary, his lead was 9%. Momentum going to Clinton – yes.
Kentucky. This is a state where Clinton has always led. The latest poll from Survey USA shows her leading 63 to 27%. That is a 38% lead and this is pretty much the way it has been over the course of the campaign. So there is no momentum here, but no loss either. The Kentucky primary is not until May 20th, two weeks after Indiana and North Carolina. So there may be some momentum showing here after those two.
Now, I know there are other polls that show Obama in the lead in Indiana and having a bigger lead in North Carolina, but they are taken by firms that have not taken any other polls. So there is no way to relate them to past performance. Also by focusing on one polling organization, you eliminate the differences in results that come from the way different polling companies conduct their polls. For instance, the way a question is worded can affect the answers. By focusing on one company, you can be pretty certain that the questions in each one were pretty much that same. Also Survey USA polls many more respondents than most of the others do. In the case of Indiana, it is over 2,000. To compare them to a poll that only has a few hundred respondents does not give a good comparison.
All things said and done, do the polls show a momentum in favor of Clinton. At this point in time, yes. The last polls from West Virginia showed her with a substantial lead there also, but we need some new ones. Stay tuned for more this week.
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