Is Virginia a Red State That Will Turn Blue?
The latest poll on Virginia from Rasmussen Reports shows John McCain leading both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, but he has lost ground over the last month to both of them. Virginia has long been a red state, but if the current trend continues, it could be blue.
In the Virginia primaries, Obama won by a margin of 64 to 35% and McCain, who had two opponents, Huckabee and Paul came in first with 50% to Huckabee’s 41% and Paul’s 4%.
McCain vs Obama. In the Rasmussen poll taken back on March 29th, McCain was leading Obama 52 to 41% – an 11% lead.. In the poll today he leads , 47% to 44% – just a 3% lead. In the all important cross over and independent vote count, McCain gets 14% of the Democratic vote and Obama gets 16% of the Republican vote. With the independents, McCain gets 52% fo the vote and Obama gets 22%.
McCain vs Clinton: In the same poll on March 29th, McCain lead Clinton by a margin of 58% to 36% – 22%. In the latest poll, McCain has the lead 47% to 41% -6%. In the all important cross over and independent vote count, McCain get the support of 12% of the Democrats and 52% of the independents. Clinton gets 15% of the Republican votes and
32% of the independents.
Virginia has voted Republican in every Presidential election since 1968. Even with that record, Rasmussen only gives Virginia a 58% chance of ending up in the Republican column this time around. In fact, most others as well have them leaning to the Republican side, not solidly there, but those figures were compiled before this current poll. Indications are that Virginia could very well change from a red state to a blue state and bares watching in future polls. Rasmussen also took at look at the Senate race in Virginia. –Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Jim Gilmore 55% to 37% in a race to replace retiring Republican Senator John Warner. The two Warner’s are not related.
This change has been in the making for about two years and it appears to be related to the view of Virginians of the Bush administration more than it has to do with any of the Presidential candidates. There are 62% of Virginians who give Bush a poor or fair rating and 36% good or excellent.
Also, two years ago, Virginia’s other Republican Senator, George Allen lost his bid for re election to Jim Webb by a very narrow margin. There are some who believe that Allen did not run a good campaign, maybe he felt too secure, but with the trend going to Democrats in the other races, the feelings about the Administration could be playing a big part.
The Governor could be playing a big part also. Democratic Governor Tim Kaine has 51% who say he is doing a good or excellent job and just 18% a poor job.