Looking Beyond North Carolina and Indiana
Today is D day in North Carolina and Indiana. I stick by my
predictions of yesterday, even with the polls showing such wide differences. So now it is time to look ahead to the coming week. The latest polls out from Rasmussen Reports are on West Virginia, whose primary is on May 13th and Oregon whose primary will be held on May 20th
The last poll from Rasmussen Reports back on March 13th showed Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by a margin of 55% to 27% with 18% uncertain. The poll out today shows Clinton leading 56% to 27% with 17% uncertain, showing virtually no change from the previous poll. There is one very interesting result from this poll. When they asked if the respondents would vote for Obama over McCain, 56% said they are somewhat likely too. When they asked about Clinton vs McCain, 72% said they were at least somewhat likely to vote for her. West Virginia has 39 delegates at stake.
The story is different in Oregon where Obama has the lead 51 to 39% with 10% unsure. Interestingly, here 82% of the respondents say they would pick either Clinton or Obama over McCain in November.
Every poll taken in every state shows that the economy is the most important issue. The candidates have been focusing on the gas crisis. The price of oil right now is at the highest it has ever been, at over $120 a barrel, so we will be looking at the various plans proposed by the candidates and others. Unfortunately oil prices are not the only issue with the current American economic climate. The April figures are in and they are not good, even though there have been some promising signs.
If either of the candidates does better than expected today in North Carolina and Indiana, the momentum could carry over to Oregon and West Virginia as well as the other states that still have to have their primaries. Both of them have to be very careful, because just one mistake from here on out could mean the complete collapse of either campaign. The Republicans have primaries coming up too and with John McCain the presumptive candidate there is no doubt about the fact that he will be the winner. If he is not, it would make the biggest news story of the year. However, in the Pennsylvania Primary, there were still 27% who voted for someone else. If that trend continues, it shows he has a long way to go to unite the Republican party behind him. And we will be watching.