McCain Picks up a Little in the Electoral College Count
There have been some changes in the swing state count and this time John McCain can add some to his column. The changes will happen almost every day from here on in and it will be a roller coaster ride, but watching state by state is the best way to see how the election is going.
The swing states as of the last count were Colorado 9 votes, Florida 27 votes, Indiana 11 votes, Michigan 17 votes, Missouri 11 votes, Montana 3 votes, Nevada 5 votes, New Hampshire 4 votes, North Carolina 15 votes, North Dakota 3 votes, Ohio 20 votes, Virginia 13 votes and Wisconsin 10 – 13 States with a total of 148 votes up for grabs.
Now for the changes. North Carolina is almost leaning towards McCain. We need at least one more poll before it can be said to be in his column and the reason for that is the two poll just out show very different results. One shows him leading by 20% and the other shows him leading by 4%. Too much of a difference in the polls for either of them to be taken at their word. McCain does pick up Montana with its 3 electoral votes. The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports shows him with an 11% lead. Ohio is considered very important to both candidates and right now McCain has a 6% lead. Not enough to award him the state yet, but if the next poll shows a substantial increase, the state will be considered his.
The other swing states are still up for grabs, with McCain leading in some and Obama in others, but by just a few percentage points. This is the way it will be. One or two states a day moving to one column or another. Then the trick will be to keep them. Anything can happen, with the possible exception of McCain losing Arizona and Obama Illinois.
So today we remove one more from the swing state list, Montana, and give its 3 votes to McCain. The electoral college count with this change is now Obama 248 and McCain 160,
The swing states left are Colorado 9 votes, Florida 27 votes, Indiana 11 votes, Michigan 17 votes, Missouri 11 votes, Nevada 5 votes, New Hampshire 4 votes, North Carolina 15 votes, North Dakota 3 votes, Ohio 20 votes, Virginia 13 votes and Wisconsin 10 – 12 States with a total of 145 votes up for grabs. Stay tuned. The story is far from over.
Comment by susan on 12 September 2008:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com