Oregon and Wisconsin – Two States Up For Grabs
Oregon and Wisconsin are two states that are being watched very closely. Both are pretty much up for grabs in the election and a loss of either of them could be a big blow to the McCain campaign, more so than Obama’s.
While the popular vote is close as close can be, Obama has a big lead in the Electoral College vote, some saying he has enough states sowed up already to give him the nomination, some saying he is only one or two states away, while McCain needs to capture virtually all of the swing states. Of course, anything can happen between now and November 20th and the figures right after the conventions will be more exact, but states like Oregon and Wisconsin will be extremely important no matter what the case.
Two polls just out show Obama leading in both states. In Oregon, which is considered to be leaning toward Obama, not solidly in his column, a Survey USA poll shows him leading by a margin of 48 to 45%, a virtual tie . In the primaries, both Obama and McCain won big, Obama by a margin of 50 to 41% and McCain by a whopping margin of 85 to 15% over Ron Paul. In the past 10 elections, Oregon has gone to the Republicans 5 times from 1968 to 1984 and the the Democrats 5 times from 1988 to 2004 and Oregon has picked the winner 6 times. Oregon’s 7 electoral votes are still pretty much up for grabs, so far.
In Wisconsin , a poll from WPR shows Obama with a lead of 44 to 38%, however that is the smallest lead he has had in any of the polls and Wisconsin is considered to be a swing state, but just barely – it is heading toward the Obama side, but not enough to be considered leaning his way. Remember, Michigan was one of the states penalized by both parties for moving their primaries up too soon on the calendar. In the primaries, which were open primaries, Obama came in last with Clinton winning with 55% and uncommitted delegates coming in next with 40%. However the DNC awarded the 29 uncommitted delegates to Obama. On the Republican side, Romney was the winner with 39% and McCain came in second with 39%. Wisconsin has gone to the Democrats 6 times and the Republicans 4 times – the last 5 have been to the Democrats – and Wisconsin has picked the winner in 6 of them.
Comment by susan on 8 August 2008:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com