A poll taken by Survey USA shows Barack Obama in the lead in North Carolina. This is the lowest lead he has had in the polls taken over the last month.

This is only one poll, and it was taken on the day of the Pennsylvania primary, but it will be a good one to compare the up coming polls to. This poll was taken among Democrats and independents, who are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary and there was a total of 2.100 respondents. It shows Obama with 50% and Clinton with 41%. The previous polls were Public Policy Polling
4/20/2008 that showed Obama leading by 57 to 32% with 11% undecided, but the are the ones who said Obama would win Pennsylvania by 494% to 46% while all of the others showed Clinton winning by 10%. The other North Carolina polls are American Research Group taken 4/15/2008 showing Obama leading 52 to 41% with 5% undecided , and Inside Advantage showing Obama leading by 51 to 36% with 13% undecided.

Now this one poll that shows Clinton making some progress in North Carolina is by no means a sign that things are turning around, but it does show that the North Carolina polls should be watched. The chances that Clinton will win in North Carolina, whose primary is on May 6th, the same day as Indiana’s is very slim. But if she wins in Indiana – where the latest poll show Clinton leading 55 to 39%, or Obama leading 40 to 35% – The only Indiana poll that shows him leading. Kentucky- where the latest polls shows Clinton leading by 62 to 26%, West Virginia where the latest poll shows Clinton leading by 55% to 27%, and Puerto Rico where she leads 50 to 37% with 12% undecided, Obama will need a decisive victory in North Carolina to be able to hold a substantial delegate lead.

The only other state where polls have been taken where Obama leads is in Oregon, where the latest poll shows him leading 52 to 42%. This is the only Oregon poll taken just between the two of them.

The delegate count right now is Obama 1,719 and Clinton 1,586 a difference of 133. A candidate needs 2,025 to win.

Keep tuned. The polls this week and next week will have an important story to tell…