Prediction: Clinton Will Win in Pennsylvania
Today is the big day in Pennsylvania. Primary day. Of all the primaries so far this year, it has been the one with the most controversy, most up and downs and the most press. All things considered, when tonight is over, expect Hillary Clinton to be the winner, but not by enough of a margin to close the gap between her an Barack Obama.
Yesterday for the first time in a long time almost all of the polls came in showing her in the lead. And today the latest Zogby Poll shows her with a 10% lead. Most of the difference comes from the undecided finally getting off the fence. Obama did have a shot, even though Clinton did have a lead of 20% a few months ago, but the voters stated that they were getting tired of all of his adds – remember he started campaigning very early on and had much more money to spend. Other things that tripped him up were his own comments and those of his now retired pastor.
What would a Clinton win mean? It would mean she would continue in the race and it would also make it even less likely that there will be a nominee before the convention. It will also have an impact on the rest of the up coming primaries. For instance, Clinton had been the leader in Indiana all along. But recent polls show Obama in the lead. A win for Clinton in Pennsylvania could very well tip the scales in Indiana back in her favor again. Clinton has large leads in Kentucky, Puerto Rico and West Virginia. Obama has an almost insurmountable lead in North Carolina and is leading by 10% in Oregon. In Indiana he is leading by 5%. Polls arer not available from the states in late May and early June, So there is still along way to go.
Another factor is John Edwards. I have touched on his impact on the primaries previously. However, he has said he is not ready to endorse anyone and he may not ever.
Of course, the voters of Pennsylvania are the ones with the final say. At least as far as today goes. But unless they have a huge number who change their minds at the last minute, Clinton will grab this one. It just remains to be seen by how much.
Comment by Alexander Nobles on 22 April 2008:
But a Small gain in Pennsylvania could mean big win for Barack Obama…
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