Rasmussen: Pennsylvania Currently Breaks for the Democrats.


Rasmussen Reports is taking a close look at current trends in the swing states and this time they have focused on Pennsylvania, a state in which John McCain lags behind in current polls. McCain trails Clinton more than Obama.

If the match up were to be between John McCain and Barack Obama, Obama would win by a margin of 45 to 43%.  McCain would get 71% of the Republican vote, 23% of the Democratic vote and 42% of the independent. Obama would get 63% of the Democratic vote, 17% of the Republican and 50% of the independent. McCain gets more of the Democratic votes than Obama does Republican and Obama gets more of the independent voters than Mc Cain.

However, if Hillary Clinton were to be the nominee, McCain would have a tougher time. Clinton would beat McCain 50 to 39%. McCain would get 74% of the Republican vote, 14% of the Democratic and 37% of the independent. Clinton would get 76% of the Democrats, 15% of the Republicans and 49% of the independent. Clinton gets more of the Republican votes than McCain does the Democratic, but just barely, however she does much better with the independents.

Clinton does better than Obama with all three voter groups. Each candidate has his or her support base intact. What will happen when there is only one Democratic candidate – how many will remain loyal to the party and how many will either vote for McCain or someone else, will be a good benchmark as to how the rest of the county may go.

Pennsylvania, with its 27 electoral votes, will be a hotly contested state. And once there is an official Democratic nominee, the figures will change dramatically. In the primaries, Clinton was the winner on the Democratic side by a margin of 55 to 45% over Obama and McCain won big with 73% to 16% for Ron Paul and 11% for Mike Huckabee. Pennsylvania is considered to be a swing state that is leaning ever so slightly to the Democrats. In the past Presidential elections, Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, Republican in 1980. 1984 and 1988 and before that Democratic in 1968 and 1976 and Republican in 1972. Out of these 10 elections, Pennsylvania went with the winner 7 times. Not a bad track record.


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