The Latest from Georgia: McCain in the Lead
The latest Rasmussen Reports polls from Georgia show John McCain leading Barack Obama 51% to 41% with 6% supporting another candidate and 2% uncertain. These are the first polls to come out since Hillary Clinton suspended her run, so they will tell just how her supporters are leaning.
Georgia is considered to be leaning heavily toward McCain, not solidly there yet, so this is one state where things might change. Last month, when there were still 3 candidates, McCain lead Obama 53% to 39% and Clinton 48% to 37%. In this poll, McCain got 87% of the Republican vote, 15% of the Democrat and 53 of the independent. In the previous poll, McCain got 88% of the Republican vote, 16% of the Democratic and 59% of the independent when he was matched up against Obama. Virtually no movement at all, which is not surprising given the fact that Clinton and Obama got just about the same percentage against him last month, so there were not that many more who favored Clinton back then to make a big difference.
What will make a difference in Georgia? On the war in Iraq, 46% think it is important to stay until the war is won and the same percentage says it is more important to bring the troops home as soon as possible. This is the only one of the major issues that Rasmussen addressed in this poll. It is evident that is something happens in Iraq that convinces voters that one or the other of the options becomes more important, it will tip the election in Georgia one way or the other. In that case, Obama would gain if it became evident that it is right to bring the troops home and McCain would gain if it became evident that it was important to stay until it was all over.
It will be interesting to watch the future polls to see what impact the Libertarian candidate Bob Barr will have on the voters in the very conservative state of Georgia. It is very early yet and if the voters get upset with the two major candidates, anything can happen It has happened here before.
Georgia has a total of 15 electoral votes. Georgia has voted Republican in 6 out of the last 10 Presidential elections, Democratic in 3 and in one, 1968, the electoral votes of Georgia went to neither of the two major parties. Georgia has picked the winner in 7 out of these ten, Democrats in 2 and Republicans in 5. Not a bad track record at all.
Comment by susan on 13 June 2008:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com