The United States is now implying that anything less than full admission by Iran to having a nuclear weapons program will be a failure of the current IAEA investigations into Iran’s nuclear past and present and will justify a third round of sanctions on Iran. The United States is hoping to soon bring a vote before the UN to pass that third round of sanctions. Exactly when this vote will come is not exactly clear, but Condi Rice has recently stated that she hopes to see a vote within weeks.

The IAEA will release their most recent report on Friday. Last week a draft of the resolution for the proposed sanctions made its way around the UN, the draft would include “asset freezes and mandatory travel bans for specific Iranian officials and vigilance on all banks in Iran. It also repeats the council’s demand that Iran halt nuclear enrichment activity.”

On Monday a United States bipartisan envoy made a visit to Israel where sanctions on Iran were a topic for discussion. Jon Kyl, Senate Republican Minority Whip from Arizona, said the US envoy was able to see the “full picture” of the December NIE implying that Iran was not let off the hook by the NIE stating that they stopped their nuclear program in 2003.

The United States, a world superpower with a nuclear weapon stock pile of 10,000 nuclear warheads, is likely to have their wish for sanctions granted by the UN, but the sanctions will not likely deter Iran’s nuclear program, a program they repeatedly claim is peaceful. There is a sense, however that this argument regarding the Iranian nuclear program is in perpetual deadlock.

Reuel Marc Gerecht seems to realize this in his Op-Ed today in the New York Times which is deceptively titled “Attack Iran, With Words.” In the piece Gerecht basically argues that the U.S. should offer diplomacy because it will surely be rejected and then more Americans will get behind a military strike. In his words, “Meeting Iranian leaders is perhaps the best way to turn doves into hawks.”

Iran has declared that God will protect their nuclear program and their press is repeatedly saying that they do not need the west in order to be economically successful, implying that economic sanctions will not get them to fold. Iranian President Ahmadinejad said today in a televised speech that, “As far as we are concerned, the nuclear issue is closed.” Regardless of the Iranian President’s statements, these sanctions may arrive soon before Iran finishes its year, on March 19, with record profits in oil of approximately $63 billion. Rhetoric on the Western side has reached the level of stating that Iran should not have even the knowledge to make a nuclear weapon, if this is taken literally it would mean that the West will move forward until Iran is completely brought to its knees either by sanctions or by acts of war and the West steps in and takes the reins of Iran.

In short, it is difficult to see any middle ground that Iran and the West share at this point. The most likely scenario is that the U.S. pushes sanctions and Iran continues to stand firm. The great sleeping giant in this scenario is United States public opinion. As these sanctions move forward and eventually plans for a military strike are laid on the table, the American people will need to let their elected officials know that they do not want violence used against Iran because they are not a threat to the United States population.

If the U.S. is going to focus its diplomatic energy anywhere it should be at the root of this problem, the Israeli/Palestinian (Lebanese) conflict.

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