The imminent battle over the replacement of Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court will almost impede this year’s presidential contest. It might even have a gross effect in an often overlooked 2016 election contest, the fight for control of the Senate.
The New York Times said the Senate is in play this November, and the same vulnerable Republicans whose defeats might cost the G.O.P. control of the chamber are at once among the likeliest to back President Obama’s nominee. They are also the likeliest to suffer if the fight has political costs to the party.
The Democrats are not most likely going to retake the Senate. The Democrats would need to win five seats or even four if they are to retain the presidency. But they have an open chance to win because majority of the Republicans from competitive or Democratic-leaning states are up for re-election. The Republican senators could have strong electoral bonuses to support Mr. Obama’s Supreme Court nominee otherwise, their opposition will be used against them.
The great number of relatively moderate Republicans from relatively moderate states results to the overwhelming Republican victory in the midterm elections six years ago. The Republicans claimed six Senate seats in states carried by Mr. Obama in 2008 in that particular election: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Illinois.
Majority of the senators, except Marco Rubio of Florida, are all running for a re-election, and all of them are susceptible. Democrats have hired strong candidates in all of the states except Pennsylvania and the present situation over there is not all that bad for the party.
It’s difficult to see potential upside for the Republicans, considering the states involved and the notion that the Democrats little disadvantaged at the start. The few Democratic states in play which are Nevada and Colorado are popular for social liberalism.