Hillary still polling 50% nationwide. Huckabee vs Paul
Even the republicans are adding fuel to the Hillary Clinton train. If any of you watched the latest democratic debate, it was beat up the nominee night. Everybody on every side is adding fuel to the inevitability train. Hillary started out as the front runner and she is still the one that has grown the most support. She is showing signs of weakness, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Election 2008 is turning into spin central. This race is going to be the most brutal national race we have ever seen.
On the republican side, Mike Huckabee has been growing very rapidly since June. Even Huckabee is starting to think that he has more hope than just to become the vice presidential candidate. Ron Paul has been growing, but very slow. This is amazing considering that he has raised almost 2.5 million today… with eight hours left. Ron Paul just started to spend his hoard of money, so expect to see a significant raise. The problem with Ron Paul is he is just not courted by the media like Huckabee. In all regards Paul is the much stronger candidate than Huckabee… Main stream media sure won’t let you believe that.
Popularity: 1% [?]
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Comment by Joe Lawson on 5 November 2007:
Not sure where your getting your “growing info” from. Are you talking about landline phones?
Are the old fashioned polls really accurate anymore?
According to the Centers for Disease Control - NO
The CDC recently published their concern that the poling they do on a regular basis for disease control is no longer accurate. According to the CDC, landline phones are being disconnected at an alarming rate in favor of one simple cell phone. Its estimated that a large majority of Americans age 18-45 only have a cell phone. Since cell phones are not counted in polling, the results are bias towards the poor and an older population.
In addition, with the advent of no call lists, internet phones, cable phones and unlisted numbers, traditional landline polling has become more of voodoo polling rather than scientific.
As to Ron Paul, all these points factor in to his low showing in the old fashioned polls, not to mention the fact that most pollsters only poll those that voted in the previous Republican primaries and do not include new voters, independents, Democrats or even third party members like those from Libertarian and Constitution Parties.
One last issue is base support. Since the Republican base dwindled to an all time low in the last 2006 election, an interesting result occurs when the pollster calls the voter. Voters that likely stayed within the Republican Party and voted in the massive loss to Democrats in 2006 will be the ones polled, while those Republicans that became frustrated and voted for another party or refused to vote at all will not be counted or called. Ron Paul should be able to pick up many of the frustrated traditional conservative Republicans that became fed up with the direction of the Republican Party.
Look for Ron Paul to win New Hampshire and South Carolina
Comment by ginger on 5 November 2007:
I think a Ron Paul vs. Hillary Clinton election would be an unimagined until now human cock-fight. I can just hear her shrill giggle when asked about carpet-bombing foreign countries and his shrill protests. I might need an Atavin after Hawk vs. Dove, but that’s the price of freedom.
Comment by Steven Harrell on 5 November 2007:
It seems to me the major polls should be boycotted. Real-world polls such as straw polls are obviously more credible because they mimic a real election. People getting a phone call and blurting out a name is much different than someone driving to a poll to vote.