New York Remains True Blue to the Democrats
There is very little doubt about the outcome of the Presidential election in New York. The Empire State is leaning very heavily to the Democratic side of the ledger, which is one reason why very few polls are being taken in New York State, but there are two very recent ones that not only show Barack Obama in the lead, but they actually have almost the same results.
New York has voted Democratic in seven of the last Presidential Elections and has picked the winner in six out of the ten. New York may not have a good record picking the winner, but then New York is heavily Democratic not only in the Presidential Elections, but in the State elections as well. It would take something drastic to change New York from a blue to a red state.
The polls that came out in June are from Quinipiac University – released on June 11th. which has Obama leading McCain by a margin of 50% to 36%. According to this poll, Obama has picked up support among white voters. Black voters support Obama 87 to 6%. They do not differentiate between men and women in relation to the votes that Obama picked up and that would be a useful statistic because Clinton’s greatest support came from white women and if that was where Obama pick up his support from, it would indicate that Clinton’s supporters were shifting their support to Obama.
The other poll was taken by the New York Times from June 6 -11 and shows Obama leading by 51% to 32%. However, this poll focused more on issues relating to the state goverment and very little on the Presidential race, so there is no detailed information that can be gathered from it. Just as a side bar, both of New York’s Senators, Hillary Clinton and Charles Schumer are considered to be doing an excellent job.
There are two reasons why there is not a bigger lead for Obama in New York. One is the fact that McCain won the New York primary by a good margin – 51% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Mike Huckabee and 7% for Ron Paul. The second one is that New York is Hillary Clinton’s adopted home and not all of her supporters have lined up in the Obama camp. If that were to happen, a fact that will be evident in the polls coming out next week, the margin will grow even more. But, again the chances of New York ending up in the Republican column is remote if not non existent.