Today marks the beginning of month six in a six month cease fire by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Iraq. The cease fire was declared on August 29^th of last year. A spokesman for the reclusive Muslim cleric has indicated that there is no guarantee that the cease fire will be renewed after it is set to expire in February. Al-Sadr feels as though Iraqi police forces are taking advantage of the cease fire to oppress his followers. There is a chance that Al-Sadr will react to allegations of human rights violations within Iraqi Security Forces by ending the cease fire and essentially declaring war on the Iraqi government.

Although the US troop surge has received much of the credit for the reduction in violence in and around Baghdad in recent months, even US pentagon officials have been forced to admit that the large reduction in violence has been a direct result of the Mahdi Army showing “self-restraint” as ordered by Al-Sadr. (Another factor, rarely mentioned, in the recent relative stabilization is the exodus of millions of Iraqi refugees to neighboring Syria and Jordan.)

If Al-Sadr was to lift the cease fire it would mean a sharp increase in violence and his followers would pay a heavy price by the hands of US troops and Iraqi Security Forces.

But by renewing the ceasefire despite the crimes of Iraqi Security Forces, some of Al-Sadr’s followers fear it would be the quieting of the final significant voice within Iraq consistently calling for an end to the American occupation.

The reason Al-Sadr initially called the cease fire was not to appease Iraqi Security Forces or US occupying forces, but rather he feared that the Mahdi Army had split into smaller groups and the cease fire would give him the time he needed to regain control of the Madi Army. While Al-Sadr had no problem with US forces wiping out rogue Shia forces, he now believes that they have crossed the line and are beginning to unfairly attack undeserving Shiites.

Muqtada al-Sadr’s is the latest reminder of how volatile the United State’s position currently is on the world stage. Washington has shown interest in holding negotiations with Al-Sadr, but Sadr, whose Mahdi Army controls several cities in the South abandoned by British forces, has continually declined. Any sign of the Mahdi Army mounting an offensive campaign could drastically change the perception and public opinion of the occupation at home in the United States. It would also further erode the American people’s confidence in the Pentagon’s ability to manage the occupation. With the economy at home in the midst of a recession it will become increasingly difficult to justify lives and dollars being lost in a country whose problems have no military solution.

It remains to be seen whether or not the Mahdi Army would return to the strength it enjoyed in 2004 when it was able to engage the occupying forces on a broad scale.

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