SIRIUS XM Satellite To The Moon? Or Just a Failed Launch?

Sirius RadioSome companies can never seem to give their investors straight answers… Sirius XM ( NASDAQ:SIRI )is one of those companies. In the past year, the stock has turned into more of a guessing game than everything else, making a sound reasonable investment choice nearly impossible. Laying out the facts for a company like SIRIUS is hard when they keep on delaying releasing fourth quarter results. Sirius XM ( siri ) could have just been waiting until the financing finally pulled through, why get a report together, if you are just going to declare bankruptcy? The truth of the matter is, they had bigger fish to fry, more things to worry about.

PROS:

  • An estimated 20 Million subscribers bringing in loads of money each month.
  • Merger synergies are just getting realized.
  • Just overcame a major financing issue, clear road ahead… at least for a while.
  • They seem to be advertising again? (I have seen ads through radio shack)
  • Really great music at a great quality.
  • Arguably, the best talk programming ever.
  • Speculated that they will release their own IPOD application for free, hence the recent price increase for on line listening. If only my Blackberry was built for streaming!

CONS:

  • Tied too heavily to the auto industry.
  • Still cannot turn a profit for really ridiculous contracts… Nobody listens to Mike the Maddog, at least enough to justify giving him his own channel. Who listens to him out of New York City?
  • Way too many shares outstanding diluting the value.
  • Economy is dropping like a rock, and investors are ditching things that are tied to it.

Sirius XM has exactly what they need to truly succeed, while Internet radio does not. Nothing against Internet radio, there are golden gems of channels that are waiting to be found. Sirius XM’s channels have professionalism.

Internet radio will never be a profitable industry as you can already stream any song you want while you are online, if you know where to go, and there always is Itunes. People do not pay for things they can get for free, which is why Napster never really grew to what it could. The average user who is streaming music will just go to myspace or youtube. There is a reason Sirius Radio has 20 million subscribers and that is some people just want good music that is served by a DJ that knows what he or she is doing,… otherwise we get stuck listening to that same single 10times over on the ipod.

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