The fighting continues in the northwest region of Pakistan as the Pakistani army attempts to neutralize the Taliban. Isolated reports of fighting in tribal region of South Waziristan have begun to be reported, while the Pakistani government has announced that they plan on launching a full blown offensive in that region in the coming months. This strategy on behalf of the Pakistani government is a result of intense pressure from Washington.

In reality, India is the variable that concerns Pakistan more than it concerns US interests. The US would have a much more willing partner in Pakistan if they could coax India’s leadership to reassure Pakistan that violence between the two is not imminent. Right now Pakistan cooperates with the US largely in order to continue to receive aid not only from the US but also from other Western countries such as the UK. The problem with this aid is that because of corruption in the Pakistan government the money seldom gets spent in ways that would lead to an overall improvement in the current condition of the country. The US government understands this but financial aid is the only leverage they have to convince Pakistan to help them fight their war.

Pakistan’s fear of India originates in the belief that the two countries may be one more Mumbi style attack from a hot conflict.
From the US perspective the eminent troop surge in southern Afghanistan in an indication of a long term strategy because the troop surge in the South is not the endgame but a containment strategy. During the Bush Administration, when the Iraq War was at its worst, the Pentagon essentially conceded the South in Afghanistan to the Taliban. Now this surge is looking to reverse that concession and it is going to come at a possibly steep price. There will certainly be an escalation in violence and casualties on both sides.

Meanwhile in Pakistan a recent poll showed that President Zardari currently has a 19% approval rating in Pakistan. The main reason for this unpopularity is his willingness to shape policy based on the wishes/demands of Washington. So while politicians and Pentagon planners in Washington muse aloud about the consequences of a further destabilized Pakistan, Washington’s policy has a direct hand in the weakening government as well as the violence.

Some Pakistanis also believe that India will be the one to reap the rewards of a stabilized and democratic Afghanistan, if such a thing is ever achieved.

While the fighting continues there is a severe humanitarian crisis developing as a growing number (now approaching 2 millions) Pakistanis are being forced to flee their homes and live in refugee camps. While in the short term this is a tragedy on simply a humanitarian level, in the long term it could mean the radicalization of thousands of Pakistani civilians who may develop anger that leads them to turn against their own government as well as the US. This could lead to an increase in recruitment for the Taliban side of the conflict, fueling the militants and entrenching the US forces deeper and deeper into a never ending war.
Just as we saw in Iraq, when the US declares a war the primary focus of their foreign policy the foreign fighters come flooding into the theater from all over the region, if not the globe. And the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan will never be sealed off so the pool of potential militant fighters is literally limitless.

The reality is that if the US would simply leave the theater tensions all around would ease. And if the Taliban was a true concern for the Pakistani and Afghan governments they would work to contain or eliminate them.