On Wednesday, just one day removed from the conclusion of testimony from General David Patreuas and Iraq Ambassador Ryan Cocker’s, President George Bush delivered a speech in which he laid out his decision to halt withdrawal of troops after the already scheduled July draw down. A sizable portion of the speech was dedicated to the President addressing what he sees as the problem of Iran. In this statement he essentially gives the leadership in Iran an ultimatum:

“The regime in Tehran also has a choice to make: They can live in peace with its neighbor, enjoy strong economic and cultural and religious ties, or it can continue to arm and train and fund illegal militant groups which are terrorizing the Iraqi people and turning them against Iran.”

While President Bush did not give a time table for the Iranian leadership to make their choice, it is difficult to see a scenario in which Iranian leadership agrees to stand idly by as United States and Iraqi forces attempt to strip the Shiite militias of all influence in Iraq. President Bush then went on to deliver what amounts to a threat against Iran by saying:

“If Iran makes the right choice, America will encourage a peaceful relationship between Iran and Iraq. If Iran makes the wrong choice, America will act to protect our interests and our troops and our Iraqi partners.”

President Bush did not clarify what “America will act” would entail, but it is safe to say that military strikes are not off the table. To drive home the point of just how afraid he is of Iran President Bush made this over the top statement:

“Iraq is the convergence point for two of the greatest threats to America in this new century: al-Qaida and Iran.”

It is clear that President Bush’s statements added further fuel to the fire of speculation that this administration may very well take military action against Iran before January of next year. Many believe that a strike against Iran is impossible because the United States military is already stretched to thin and simply would not have the manpower to engage Iran militarily. That is a correct assessment when it comes to an all out ground war and occupation, such as in Iraq. But what the U.S. military is capable of at this present time is capturing the southern oil fields of Iran and then relying on overwhelming air power for regime change and control of the rest of the country. Whether or not this administration has the hubris to take this route is yet to be seen.

What the administration has made clear is that until Iran agrees to cooperate, Iraq will be out of the control of American forces. And they have made even more clear that they intend to stay until the country is well under control in a way that pleases their interests, so I’ll let you do your own deductive reasoning.

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