You win some you lose some has to be the thinking of the Obama administration given the recent outcomes of the nationwide elections in Lebanon and Iran.
In Lebanon the US and Saudi backed March 14th coalition maintained their majority in the Lebanese parliament and is now in the process of assembling a nationwide unity government, to what extent Hezbollah will be represented in that government remains unclear.
Hassan Nassrallah, the leader of Hezbollah made a statement on the election results that would lead most to believe that he intends on graciously accepting the electoral defeat. Nassrallah said, “the opposition accepts the results of the elections with a democratic spirit regardless of our evaluation of the electoral process and the methods that were used during it, including huge expenditure, sectarian and sometimes racial incitement, and open foreign interferences.”
However once the hotly debated issue of disarming Hezbollah arises in parliament, he could very well change his tone and remind the nation and the world that Hezbollah, while not the majority still maintains tremendous support among the population and is indeed a bona fide military presence in the Lebanon.
Obviously the Obama administration suffered a loss in the reelection of Ahmadinejad in Iran. The official totals showed that Ahmadinejad won over the challenger in overwhelming fashion with a 66% to 33% margain of victory. Those in the West upset by the election results, however, are pointing to polls taken shortly before the election began that showed the race much closer and in some cases the challenger in the lead.
So while many in the US seem to be claiming that these recent events point towards a shift in the Middle East towards moderation and away from extremism, it could be more accurately portrayed as a maintaining of the status quo.
In both elections there is serious doubt as to how legitimate the official results truly represent the will of the voters. In the case of Lebanon there is evidence that the ruling party flew in Lebanese citizens from around the world to vote and paid for their travel.
What is clear is how important of a piece of foreign policy the Obama administration, as well as Israel, believes Lebanon to be.
It will be interesting to see how Netanyahu Israeli government plays the hand they have been dealt with the recent elections. For now Hezbollah lacks the numbers in Lebanon to rule in the parliament and there is growing civil unrest toward Ahmadinejad in Iran, perhaps pointing towards an internal revolution. Will the Israeli rhetoric tone down and will a military intervention be at least temporarily removed from the discussion?