Where Will the Gaza Crisis Stand on Jan. 20th?
The Israeli assault on Gaza continues, reaching a new level of intensity in violence on Tuesday when Israel shelled near a UN school killing more than 50 civilians. The Palestinian death toll has surpassed 660, while the Israeli casualty toll is currently at 10, four of which were a result of friendly-fire.
The ceasefire proposal that has recently been drafted by France and Egypt, and is now being presented to both sides in the conflict as well as the international community will be a great indicator as to whether or not Israel’s primarily concern is the rocket fire from Hamas. Or if rather the Israeli government is using the rocket fire into Israel as a pretext to push ahead and intensify the assault in order to accomplish larger goals. Goals such as beginning a new occupation of the Gaza Strip or removing Hamas from power and attempting to replace them with Fatah or a power of their choosing.
Obama made a brief statement regarding the Gaza crisis on Tuesday breaking his silence on the situation in the Gaza Strip, “We are going to engage effectively and consistently in trying to resolve the conflicts that exist in the Middle East…the loss of civilian life in Gaza and Israel is a source of deep concern to me, and after January 20th I am going to have plenty to say about the issue.”
Barack Obama’s refusal to make an in depth statement on the crisis has upset many in the Arab world and some in the international community. However, relative silence seems to be his only option at this point because the situation is currently changing literally by the hour. The current reality of the situation may be entirely different on the day of his inauguration. It is safe to assume that once in office he will continue the United States government’s unwavering support for Israel. To do otherwise would be to go against the grain of the establishment at a time when he needs the support of Congress for many domestic legislative goals.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has given her approval to the Franco-Egyptian ceasefire proposal. The Bush administration has said that in order for a ceasefire to work the firing of rockets into Israel and the smuggling into the Gaza strip via underground tunnels must stop and border crossings into the Gaza Strip must be opened. There is speculation that the ceasefire proposal currently on the table includes a presence of international troops at the Egyptian/Gaza border crossing.
Rice is soon to be replaced by Secretary of State Nominee Hillary Clinton, who in the past has displayed a firm and unwavering support for Israel. It would be reasonable to expect a continuation of Bush administration policy on the current conflict to find a continuance in Clinton.
It is expected to take at the least several days and more likely a week to prepare a ceasefire resolution for a vote at the United Nations. While this resolution is being prepared Israel forces are surrounding major cities in the Gaza Strip, contemplating a full blown urban warfare assault. Such an assault would result likely result in an even more devastating loss of life than has already been seen on both sides.